Quantum Timelines Just Accelerated

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

For decades, quantum cryptanalysis was a “eventually, maybe” problem. Somewhere past 2050. Far enough away to be theoretical.

Three papers in twelve months changed that. Not faster hardware. Better math. And consequences that arrive sooner than expected. We’re on the cusp of the quantum era, and the question has become how fast can we be ready.

Gidney and Schmieg at Google Quantum AI (May 2025) showed through simulation that RSA-2048 could be broken with under 1 million qubits instead of 20 million. That’s a 20x improvement over Gidney’s own 2019 estimates through better compilation and arithmetic. The algorithms improved instead of a hardware breakthrough.

Cryptography on Lee Madajczyk

Quantum Timelines Just Accelerated